2017 Surprises and 2018 Predictions
2017 was a year of considerable change. Across industries, people challenged the status quo and fought for equality and accountability. Markets that aren’t historically known for innovation, like trucking and financial services, were disrupted by new technologies (hello crypto!). These new technologies will fundamentally change the course of many industries over the next few decades.
In 2017, we saw massive acquisitions, long awaited IPOs, and a new crop of entrepreneurs on the hunt to find the next big thing. As we move into 2018, platforms like voice and AI will further develop, and advancements in emerging technology including blockchain and machine learning will increase in awareness and utility. These innovations provide a rich opportunity for companies and founders to scale and continue to solve real problems.
I asked some of the Greylock investment team to share what surprised them in 2017, what areas or technologies they are most interested to see this year…and just for fun, the podcasts they can’t get enough of.
What was the biggest surprise in tech in 2017?
Asheem Chandna
The biggest surprise in tech last year was Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods Market. Amazon will soon have over half a million employees, is now the country’s second largest employer, and continues an aggressive march across markets and industries.
Jerry Chen
The proliferation of ICOs (some good, many not so good).
Josh Elman
The biggest surprise for me this year is the rise of new funding models for startups around selling tokens or coins instead of equity. I am really excited to see which new ecosystems develop around some of the most interesting projects and opportunities.
Sarah Guo
The impact of bad actors abusing digital platforms this year spread far beyond traditional data breaches. From nation-state sponsored troll farms and election interference, to business email compromise that steals funds, to ransomware that threatens to freeze your business, businesses and consumers are facing a new, more visceral level of digital insecurity, one that can’t be ignored. In terms of another kind of bad actor, I’m also encouraged that many industries, including tech, are finally starting to feel the pressure from women speaking out against sexual abuse and harassment.
Reid Hoffman
There was several surprises this year. One was how people embraced bitcoin as a form of digital gold, rather than a currency which had a huge impact on its valuation. Also, Satoshi Nakamoto still remains anonymous amidst the heightened attention to Bitcoin and despite extreme wealth.
I was also surprised by the untampered nature of rising anti-tech sentiment. I’m not suggesting that the tech industry is beyond criticism — far from it. However, given the role of technological innovation on making America more prosperous, democratic, and dynamic, much of the conversation has focused on how the industry inhibits or blocks emerging technologies, and thus preserves the status quo (or even takes steps backward). The key to prosperity in the 21st century isn’t about creating more coal-mining jobs or protecting taxi monopolies. It’s about creating a set of policies, incentives, and resources that enable innovation and entrepreneurship to better society.
Lastly, with the emergence of corrective movements like #metoo and #timesup, sexual harassers and predators are finally being held accountable for their behavior. No more open secrets.
John Lilly
The absolute ubiquity of voice interfaces — the Amazon Echo in particular just really caught fire. It’s not surprising to me that people want our computers to understand when we talk to them — it’s surprising (and educational) to me that people are so excited about the things that the Echo (and Google Home and Siri) can do today. Watching kids use these things, where they just assume they can do anything, is very educational — my kids find new ways to use the Echo just about every week, without ever thinking it’s unusual.
Which 2018 tech trends interest you most?
Asheem Chandna
We are still very early in artificial intelligence’s move into our work and personal lives. I’m excited about automated reasoning across data sets applied to problem areas relevant to enterprise customers. I continue to be excited about helping advance enterprise security, and especially new challenges around data and applications security. Additionally, enterprises are looking for new infrastructure and applications offerings that can enable and operate in mobile first and enterprise hybrid environments and I’m excited to help entrepreneurs develop and bring these new solutions to market.
Jerry Chen
I’m looking for companies that are building the “system of intelligence” or “system of engagement” in different sectors of the modern enterprise. From using data to manage and optimize your cloud, networking, and storage workloads to using AI to build a new generation of enterprise apps for CRM, HR, and IT.
Josh Elman
Mobile still has a ton of opportunity. Just last year with ARKit and ARCore we are starting to see the possibilities of AR and I think this year may be when we see some breakouts. I am also excited about decentralized apps which create new ways for participants on all sides to make money through participation.
Sarah Guo
The incumbents and many other naysayers would say it’s a challenging time to compete in business software; players such as Salesforce and Workday have already claimed the obvious “systems of record” in the cloud. Rather than focusing on Oracle and SAP replacement opportunities, I am focused on finding entrepreneurs that are bringing a new generation of user-friendly software to fulfill the needs of a digital era, and founders trying to serve new customers — teams, departments, SMBs — rather than just the big-enterprise CIO. Companies like Atlassian, Dropbox, Shopify and Slack are “decacorn” examples of this, and we’ll see at least 10 more over the next decade.
Reid Hoffman
I’m eager to see how autonomous vehicles continue to progress — I think they’re going to arrive both sooner and later than people expect. On the “sooner” end of the spectrum, we’re going to see the emergence of strong, highly visible, but relatively narrow use cases that will improve society, such as helping humans drive better through network connected devices and autonomous delivery via drones. On the “later” end of the spectrum, it would still take at least 15 years to replace all the cars that are currently on the road with autonomous vehicles. Because of this, we’re going to see OEMs and others begin to play a much more significant role as some autonomous functionality is built into new cars or retrofitted onto existing vehicles. This “blended environment” is still going to exist for now and technologies that recognize this fact and play into are really interesting.
Also, new developments in fusion power, rocket and satellite propulsion, and supersonic propulsion are going to lead to incredibly useful new technologies — and creating many compelling investment opportunities.
John Lilly
For 2018, I’m most excited that about the prospect of the “crypto” part of “cryptocurrency” — PKI has been around for a long time, but has always been too tough for most humans to use. The rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has been interesting though — lots of people hammering away on how to make cryptography more usable and useful to a much wider set of people. And I think it’s coming just in time, as we’ll see the attacks from all directions increase.
What is your “must-listen” podcast?
Jerry Chen
I’m an avid listener of Slate Political Gabfest, Slate Whistlestop, Radio Lab, Freakonomics, and 99% Invisible.
Josh Elman
I really enjoy listening to NPR’s This American Life.
Sarah Guo
This year, I’ve loved NPR’s How I Built This — it’s got a great diversity of founding stories. It really humanizes the work and the people behind some amazing companies, from BET to Airbnb.
Reid Hoffman
Like Sarah, I really enjoy listening to NPR’s How I Built This. What can I say — when I’m not interviewing amazing entrepreneurs on Greymatter and Masters of Scale (shameless plug!), I still love learning about them as a listener. And host Guy Raz does a great job telling the stories of some of the world’s most interesting innovators.
John Lilly
I’ll mention 3 podcasts that I really like. Even after working with Reid for more than 15 years, I learn a lot just about every time I talk with him, and it’s awesome hearing him interview so many interesting people on his Masters of Scale podcast. The second podcast is for my inner nerd: 99% Invisible. I love learning about how things work, and this is a great way to do that. Finally, my genuine favorite pod is Men In Blazers. It’s how I keep up with my kids in FIFA18.
